VoIP by the Numbers - Subscribers, Revenues, Top Service Providers, Blogs and more...
over IP (VoIP)
has the potential to dramatically change the telecommunications
landscape. Market forecasts exponential growth in VoIP within
the next four years. Here are a compendium of revealing stats and
trends on this transformational technology, based on leading
Market Size Forecasts: Researchers estimate residential VoIP customers to be any where between 12 million to 44 million in the US by 2010. Here are some of the size estimates:
- The number of residential VoIP customers (not including PC-to-PC services) more than tripled to 4.2 million in 2005 and is expected to grow by a compound annual rate of 43.9% through 2009, reaching 18.0 million. This was on the heels of an eightfold increase from 150,000 at the end of 2003 to 1.2 million at the end of 2004, according to the Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA). The U.S. broadband market is expected to grow to 69.2 million by 2009, a 13.8% compound annual increase.
- The number of subscribers to retail voice over IP (VoIP) services rose by 83% during 2005, from 10.3 million at the beginning of 2005 to over 18.7 million subscribers worldwide by the end of the year, according to Point Topic report.
- IDC predicts that residential U.S. VoIP subscribers will grow from 10.3 million in 2006 to 44 million in 2010. The latest IDC forecast shows that VoIP will be used in 62% of broadband households in 2010.
- eMarketer forecasts that by 2010, 32.6 million US households will subscribe to a VoIP service, up from 9.6 million at the end of 2006, equating to nearly 40% of all broadband households.
- Telegeography pegged total US VoIP subscribers at 6.9 million in Q2 2006. Vonage leads the providers with 1.8 million subscribers as of the middle of 2006, while Time Warner Cable follows closely behind with 1.6 million subscribers.
Enterprise VoIP adoption in North America will more than double in 2010, according to a Infonetics Research survey. Almost half of small and two-thirds of large organizations in North America will be using VoIP products and services by 2010.
- 36% of large, 23% of medium, and 14% of small North American organizations interviewed were already using VoIP products and services in 2005
- VoIP adoption will triple by 2010 among small organizations in North America
Revenue & Investment Estimates:Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) estimates that VoIP revenue increased from $25 million in 2003 to $200 million in 2004 and $1.1 billion in 2005. Revenue is projected to increase 46.7% on a compound annual rate through 2009 reaching $5.1 billion.
- Analysis from Frost & Sullivan North American Residential VoIP Services Markets reveals that revenues in this industry totaled $1.22 billion in 2005 and estimate to reach $13.2 billion in 2012.
- Research firm Analysys projects that by 2012, Mobile VoIP services are forecast to generate revenues of $18.6 billion in the USA and $7.3 billion in Western Europe, compared with fixed VoIP revenues of $11.9 in the USA and $6.9 billion in Western Europe. The report says by 2015, mobile VoIP will carry 28% of all fixed and mobile voice minutes in the USA and 23% in Western Europe.
- In 2005, small and medium-size companies spent $2.1 billion on Internet phone systems, equipment and services, compared with $4 billion for large businesses. By 2010, small-business spending should more than quadruple to $8.9 billion, according to market-research firm InfoTech.
U.S. RBOCs have been losing 150,000 subscriber lines per month so far this year, according to Telegeography. At the same time, Voice over IP (VoIP) service providers are adding about 100,000 subscribers per month. The balance of local service subscription losses — about 50,000 — are moving to wireless-only plans or canceling their secondary household lines.
- TeleGeography predicts that VoIP service providers will capture 22% of all local exchange carriers’ existing customers, contributing to a cumulative loss of $18.2 billion in local service revenues between 2006 and 2010. Subscriber migration to VoIP also translates to $13.9 billion in lost long-distance revenues over the course of the next five years.
- TeleGeography’s research indicates that of the current 5.4 million VoIP U.S. households, about 2.8 million have defected to cable MSOs’ VoIP services and have cancelled their local phone lines altogether.
- By year-end 2005, Verizon had lost more than 8% of its residential phone subscribers.
Infonetics Research expects worldwide spending by service providers on next generation VoIP equipment to grow to $5.8 billion by 2008, from the estimated $1.73 billions in 2004. IP phone shipments grew strongly in 2Q06, up 17% to 2.1 million, and strong growth is forecast through 2009 as VoIP deployments extend beyond the network core to the desktop.
VoIP service revenue roughly doubled in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific from 2004 to 2005. Infonetics Research estimates that a combined $120 billion will be spent on VoIP services between 2005 and 2009 in the 3 regions. Other highlights include:
- Between 2005 and 2009, VoIP service
revenue will grow from:
- $2.6 billion to $13.3 billion in North America
- $2.3 billion to $12.7 billion in Europe
- $4.2 billion to $12.9 billion in Asia Pacific
- Percent of VoIP service revenue coming
from residential vs. business customers:
- 51% in North America
- 72% in Europe
- 83% in Asia Pacific
IDC forecasts the worldwide VoIP semiconductor market to grow over $2.4 billion in 2009, with a compound annual growth rate of 38.9% for 2004-2009.
Service Providers Landscape:
Households subscribing to pure-play subscription VoIP services, who are either replacing or complementing existing traditional landline services, increased from 2.2 million in Q1 2006 to 2.9 million in Q2 2006, according to Telephia. (Telephia estimates
- Vonage continues to own the largest market share of pure-play subscription VoIP consumers with a 53.9% share.
- Verizon VoiceWing and AT&T CallVantage were tied for second place, each securing a 5.5% share. SunRocket followed with a 4% percent share, while Lingo claimed a 2.6% share. NetZero Voice rounded out the top five with a 2.5% share.
The number of worldwide total VoIP subscribers (residential and enterprise) is expected to almost double 2005 to 2006, when it will top 47 million, according to Infonetics Research:
- Vonage leads in North American residential/SOHO VoIP subscriber market share, but is down from 34% in 2004 to 27% in 2005, resulting from fierce competition from cable MSOs, traditional telcos, and low-cost new entrants
- Cable companies continue pushing to increase VoIP subscriber share: Cablevision and Time Warner Cable each have double-digit share and combined have 39% of all North American residential VoIP subscribers
- AT&T, Comcast, and Cox are the only other providers with North American VoIP subscriber share greater than 3%
VoIP in Blogosphere:
- Jajah Just Launched Killer VOIP Product - TechCrunch
- Congrats to Rebtel on Raising $20 Million. Let the revolution begin! - Jeff Pulver Blog
- Ring Me on GrandCentral - Alec Saunders .Log
- GrandCentral could make phones lovable again - TechCrunch
- Mvox Duo all-in-one handsfree communicator - MobileMag
- VoIP Sans The PC - Jajah, Rebtel Make Announcements - ReadWriteWeb
- Skype readies enterprise-friendly VOIP software - InfoWorld
- Enterprise-friendly VoIP software prepared - PC Advisor
- VoIP Loves Small Business - GigaOM
- TalkCrunch, VoIP Start Ups and Digg (podcast) - GigaOM
- VC investments are up, Neurosky, and VoIP abounds - VentureBeat