It is sketched as a peak year in a scenario stretching until 2040 and is based on the calculation that the long-term costs from extreme natural disaster events are doubling every 12 years, according to data compiled by Andlug Consulting for the United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP's) Financial Initiative.

The estimated cost of droughts, storm surges, hurricanes and floods reached a record $210 billion in 2005, $120 billion of which was inflicted by Hurricane Katrina.

So far in 2006, the economic losses from bad weather events have been around $30 billion, led by $8 billion losses from Typhoon Kaemi, which struck China in July, and Typhoon Shanshan which hit Japan in September costing an estimated $2.5 billion in total losses.

Andlug Consulting's scenario noted that so-called great disasters appear in clusters every three years. Making allowance for such clusters, and for the inclusion of all costs, it seems likely that there will be a 'peak year' that will record losses of one trillion before 2040. In fact, since so much development is taking place in coastal zones, the figure may arrive considerably before 2040 the report warned.