10 Key IT Predictions for 2007 & Beyond: Gartner
the largest information technology research firm by far,
its annual 10 key predictions that showcase the trends and events that will change the nature of business and IT in 2007 and beyond. Follow-me Internet, Vista as the last of Windows, and Blogging peaks at 100 million are some of the popular predictions.
Gartner has not ranked these 10 predictions, but here is a the list with our rankings based on implications to business, IT and users:
1 Follow-me Internet: By 2010, 60% of the worldwide cellular population will be "trackable" via an emerging "follow-me Internet." Local regulations have arisen to protect users' privacy, but growing demands for national safety and civil protection are relaxing some of the initial privacy limitations.
2 $100 Billion Wasted: Through 2011, enterprises will waste $100 billion buying the wrong networking technologies and services.
3 Malware Penetration: By the end of 2007, 75% of enterprises will be infected with undetected, financially motivated, targeted malware that evaded their traditional perimeter and host defenses.
4 End of Windows: Vista will be the last major release of Microsoft Windows. The next generation of operating environments will be more modular and will be updated incrementally. The era of monolithic deployments of software releases is nearing an end.
5 Blogging Peaks at 100M: Blogging and community contributors will peak in the first half of 2007. Given the trend in the average life span of a blogger and the current growth rate of blogs, there are already more than 200 million ex-bloggers. Consequently, the peak number of bloggers will be around 100 million at some point in the first half of 2007.
6 $5.4B Revenue Shift: Through 2009, market share for the top 10 IT outsourcers will decline to 40.0% (from 43.5% now), equaling a revenue shift of $5.4 billion.
7 Global Top 20: Only one Asia/Pacific-based service provider will make the global top 20 through 2010. The number of global players in consulting that come from Asia is relatively small. This will limit the ability of the Asian juggernaut to grow revenue streams rapidly and become global leaders.
8 Social Responsibility and IT: By 2009, corporate social responsibility (CSR) will be a higher board- and executive-level priority than regulatory compliance.
9 PC TCO Free Fall: By 2010, the average total cost of ownership (TCO) of new PCs will fall by 50%. The growing importance and focus on manageability, automation and reliability will provide a welcome means of differentiating PCs in a market that is increasingly commoditized.
10 Data Centers: By 2008, nearly 50% of data centers worldwide will lack the necessary power and cooling capacity to support high-density equipment. a convergence of innovative technologies will begin to mitigate the problem by 2010.
“Selected from across our research areas as the most compelling and critical predictions, the trends and topics they address this year indicate that priorities, markets, cultures and technologies are all rapidly changing,” said Daryl Plummer, managing vice president and Gartner Fellow. “These changes will require that IT and business change their approach to delivering and quantifying value. IT professionals must examine these predictions for opportunities to increase their support of consumer-driven requirements and their ability to help the business deliver stronger services to those customers.”
The entire series of “Gartner Predicts” research includes nearly 50 reports that discuss the major trends that will affect IT users, high-tech and telecom companies and most industries in 2007 and beyond. The Gartner Predicts 2007 Special Reports series are available on Gartner’s Web site at www.gartner.com.