Worldwide PC Shipments Grew at 9.1% in Q3; Total Units to Hit 229M in 2006

IDC reports that worldwide PC shipments grew at a strong 9.1% in the third quarter of 2006 despite a flat quarter in the United States. Outside the United States, the third quarter shipments were up 13.5% in Q3. Worldwide PC shipments are projected to increase from 229 million in 2006 to 283 million 2008.
  • In U.S., overall PC shipments were flat year on year in the third quarter versus more than 5% growth in the first half of 2006 and roughly 10% annually for 2003-2005. 
  • Total U.S. PC shipments are estimated to jump from 66 million in n2006 to 76 million in 2008. 
  • Consumer PC shipments account for 89 million while commercial PC shipments total 140 million in 2006.
  • Over 10% growth forecast for worldwide PC in 2006, 2007, and 2008. 

Here is the full IDC release on worldwide PC shipments:

Slow PC Sales in the United States Constrain Global Outlook While International Growth Remains Strong, According to IDC

FRAMINGHAM, Mass., December 20, 2006 – Worldwide PC shipments grew at a solid 9.1% in the third quarter of 2006 despite no growth in the United States, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. While the U.S. saw demand slow considerably in 3Q06, growth in other regions was better than expected, keeping third quarter results in line with forecasts and limiting the impact of slower U.S. sales on worldwide growth projections for the coming year.

In the United States, overall PC shipments were flat year on year in the third quarter versus more than 5% growth in the first half of 2006 and roughly 10% annually for 2003-2005. Interestingly, weak demand was felt slightly more in the commercial segment than in the consumer segment – indicating factors other than the release of Vista affected the market. The slower growth reflects a mix of poor vendor performance in the third quarter and a slower pace of replacements. As a result, IDC reduced its forecast for growth in U.S. PC shipments over the next three quarters to low single digits. Growth will return to nearly 10% in the second half of 2007, however, this is a result of slower growth in 2006. Volume projections for 2007 remain lower than prior forecasts. Longer term, growth should remain near 8% from 2008 to 2010 as replacements and technology evolution, including adoption of portables, Vista, and new form factors, drive growth.

Outside the United States, the markets present a very different picture. Third quarter shipments were up 13.5% – in line with projections for 2006 and 2007. Although growth projections fall below 10% for 2008-2010, the largest change in the forecast was a reduction of less than half a percent growth in 2009 with other periods almost unchanged.

"Growth in PC shipments remains strong despite slower growth in the United States in Q3 and in Europe and Japan in the second quarter," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "The market is moving toward portable PCs and emerging markets even faster than expected. While growth in these areas is welcome, the outlook for mature markets is becoming more conservative."

In light of the third quarter results, with weak demand in the United States and a more conservative view of commercial replacements, growth projections have been lowered by roughly 1% through 2010. Nevertheless, IDC continues to expect double-digit growth through 2008, with growth slipping below 9% in 2009 and 2010.

"The third quarter reflected slower growth in desktops that will continue to constrain the market," said Bob O'Donnell, vice president, Clients and Displays at IDC. "However, more replacements beginning in late 2007 and increasing specialization in designs will support higher growth down the road."



U.S. and Worldwide PC Shipments and Growth, 2004-2008

Region

2004

2005

2006*

2007*

2008*

USA Units (M)

         

Consumer

21.8

23.6

25.0

26.8

29.0

Commercial

36.5

40.3

41.1

43.9

47.2

Total

58.3

63.9

66.1

70.7

76.1

Worldwide Units (M)

         

Consumer

64.9

78.5

89.4

100.0

111.4

Commercial

114.4

129.3

140.0

155.4

171.8

Total

179.2

207.8

229.4

255.4

283.2

USA Growth (%)

   

 

Consumer

 

8.3%

6.0%

7.0%

8.2%

Commercial

 

10.4%

2.1%

6.9%

7.3%

Total

 

9.6%

3.5%

6.9%

7.7%

Worldwide Growth (%)

 


 

Consumer


21.1%

13.8%

11.8%

11.4%

Commercial

 

13.1%

8.3%

11.0%

10.5%

Total

 

16.0%

10.4%

11.3%

10.9%



*Forecast data (Shipments are in millions of units)

PCs include Desktop, Notebook, Ultra Portable, and x86 Server and do not include handhelds.

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, December 2006

IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in 55 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data.

For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.

 

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